Good morning! Hello to new readers, and welcome to the latest edition of the Vietnam Weekly, written by Ho Chi Minh City-based reporter Mike Tatarski. The Friday newsletter is always free to read.
This week’s article for paying subscribers took a deep look at the U.S. Commerce Department’s decision to maintain Vietnam’s designation as a non-market economy and what that means. If you haven’t already, upgrade to a paid subscription to access that and all future weekly subscriber-only features.
A new episode of The Vietnam Weekly Podcast featuring Eric Olander of The China-Global South Project arrives on all podcast platforms Monday morning. It pairs well with the coverage below.
On to the news.
Vietnam-China Ties
On Tuesday, General Secretary and President Tô Lâm concluded a state visit to China - his first foreign trip since taking the top post.
Việt Nam News hailed it as “a great success, marking a new milestone and ushering in a new phase of development in the friendly neighborliness and comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between the two countries.”
Minister of Foreign Affairs Bùi Thanh Sơn said ties between the two sides are at their “deepest, most comprehensive and substantive level ever,” while the Global Times stated the visit would “further promote the construction of a China-Vietnam community with a shared future that carries strategic significance…”
In addition to visiting Guangzhou, Lâm met Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping in Beijing. The two leaders signed 14 agreements on “cooperation between central banks, media, health and the quarantine and inspection of coconuts, crocodiles and durians,” according to Reuters.
These deals also covered planning and feasibility studies for new and improved cross-border rail links, which were discussed during Xi’s visit to Hanoi in December.
In April, the Vietnamese government said it would prioritize two high-speed rail connections to China, namely from Hanoi to Lạng Sơn on the Chinese border and another linking key ports in Quảng Ninh and Hải Phòng with Yunnan Province via Lào Cai.
Construction is expected to begin before 2030, but no firm investments have been announced and Vietnam does not have the technical expertise (or budget) for such projects.
This comes as investment from China and demand for Chinese goods both drive the need for improved infrastructure. Through July, China accounted for the most new FDI projects in Vietnam, accounting for 29.7% of the total. Singapore topped the list of FDI by value at US$6.5 billion - the city-state is a common conduit for Chinese investment and was followed by Hong Kong.
Chinese companies are also building out warehouses and other logistics facilities along the border and near industrial hubs within Vietnam. Currently, 5 million low-value e-commerce orders enter Vietnam from China daily, equaling almost US$2 billion per month, with officials scrambling to figure out how to tax them.
On the topic of financing, the Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank - pitched as an alternative to the Western-backed World Bank and Asian Development Bank - recently said it would invest US$5 billion in Vietnam’s green economy. This figure, however, “does not have a defined timeframe and depends on the quality and feasibility of the proposed projects,” according to DealStreetAsia.
For those interested, Vietnam and China issued a joint statement “on promoting comprehensive strategic partnership, community with shared future” after Lâm’s visit.
And lest we forget about ‘bamboo diplomacy, National Assembly Chairman Trần Thanh Mẫn met U.S. Ambassador Marc Knapper last week and reaffirmed that the U.S. is a “partner of strategic importance.”
There is also speculation that Lâm will attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York next month in his capacity as state president, whereas the China trip was as general secretary.
Cambodia and the Bangladesh Moment
Last week I covered Vietnamese social media users invoking the political crisis in Bangladesh and the term ‘color revolution’ concerning Fulbright University Vietnam.
Now it’s Cambodia’s turn to pick up these issues, though with a key difference: some people there are angry at their own government, while some Vietnamese assailed supposed anti-government meddling.
I’ll start by crediting
for bringing this to my attention in her Campuccino newsletter last week.On Sunday the 11th, Cambodians in South Korea, Japan, and Australia protested the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Area, or CLV-DTA. CamboJA News shared links to Facebook videos of the protests.
The news outlet also translated a phrase reportedly shouted at one rally: “Cambodia continues to support CLV as a way of losing territorial sovereignty. [W]hen citizens have suffered enough, it might erupt like Bangladesh.”
Before going further, you may be wondering what the CLV-DTA is - I only learned of its existence upon reading Darathtey’s newsletter.
It covers four Cambodian provinces, four Lao provinces, and five Vietnamese provinces and aims to boost cooperation among the three countries.
Back to the protestors: their concerns stem from beliefs that Cambodia is ceding parts of its territory to Vietnam through the CLV-DTA.
The Cambodian government responded by claiming that this is part of a broader plot to begin a ‘color revolution’ while pledging to suppress alleged “extremist opposition groups” based overseas “attempting to overthrow the government.” (Vietnam watchers may recall similar phrasing from Vietnamese officials after last year’s deadly attack on government buildings in Đắk Lắk Province.)
Last week, Cambodian police arrested two individuals for “allegedly inciting people to topple the government with regards to the…CLV-DTA.”
In a since-deleted Facebook post, former Prime Minister Hun Sen offered a blunt warning to protestors: “At this point, you have to thoroughly think that if you fail [to overthrow the government] you will be in danger. This issue [like in Bangladesh] cannot happen.”
Let’s take a second to marvel at the many variations of nationalism just between Cambodia and Vietnam: Hun Sen threatened a group of Cambodians for, at least in part, continuing a long history of anti-Vietnam sentiment, while in May he asked for support from Vietnam in finding Vietnamese TikTok users who criticized him over the controversial Funan Techo Canal.
For more on the complex nature of these ties, I recommend this Diplomat analysis of the ‘politics of gratitude’ between Vietnam and Cambodia. (VPN needed in Vietnam.)
Over the weekend, Cambodian police arrested over 20 activists ahead of a planned rally in Phnom Penh, where security forces were out in large numbers.
It’s not clear whether that put an end to the issue, but an editorial in the Khmer Times with no byline made the official line clear through its title of ‘Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle: Shared Aspirations and Interests for All.’
Yesterday, the spokesperson for Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the CLV-DTA has “helped promote economic, trade and people-to-people exchanges among the three countries.”
Data Corner:
12: The number of years that Hanoi’s Nam Thăng Long Urban Area-Trần Hưng Đạo Street metro line has been in the ‘project adjustment’ stage. No work has begun and its completion date moved from 2015 to 2031.
Over 700: The number of American International School (AISVN) students who have not transferred to another school even though AISVN is suspended from operating for a year. The school has been embroiled in controversy for months.
252: The number of students in Thái Bình Province who now can’t attend their public high school of choice after officials detected 2,769 mistakes in scoring the provincial high school entrance exam.
Extra Links:
Will Vietnam Go Down China’s Path? (Fulcrum)
Vân Vân’s Single-Origin Spices Dial Into the Regional Flavors of Vietnam (Eater)
Infrastructure shrinks Mekong Delta’s major floating markets (Mekong Eye)
Hẻm Gems: An Alternative Cao Lầu in Saigon for Full-Topping Eaters (Saigoneer)
Dodge City (Bloomberg - $)
Have a great weekend!
I refer to the section on the GS's visit to China and point you to the following piece in The Economist: https://www.economist.com/asia/2024/08/21/vietnams-new-ruler-hardman-capitalist-hedonist?utm_campaign=r.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=20240822&utm_content=ed-picks-image-link-5&etear=nl_today_5&utm_campaign=r.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=8/22/2024&utm_id=1914568
So much going on